3D still years away for home theaters

3D SUMMIT: Technology will continue to grow in theaters next year

By Susanne Ault -- Video Business, 12/1/2008

DEC. 1 | LOS ANGELES—Although 3D projection is now spreading rapidly in multiplexes, the technology is unlikely to reach home theaters in the next decade, according to DreamWorks Animation CEO Jeffrey Katzenberg.

During his Monday keynote at the 3D Entertainment Summit here, Katzenberg explained that there will be a growing divide between theatrical and home entertainment, especially as pertains to animated films.

Exhibitors and studios are quickly expanding the number of 3D-equipped screens and 3D films, particularly animation, playing on them. However, for home theater technology to keep pace, consumers will have to invest in 3D-capable TVs, which is unlikely to happen until the new flat-screen HDTVs, which are rapidly increasing their penetration, have been amortized in homes, Katzenberg said.

Starting next year, DWA has committed to produce all of its movies in 3D technology, anticipating widening screen penetration. Currently, about 1,500 3D theatrical screens are in the U.S. That should grow to 2,500 screens by the time DWA’s next project, Monsters vs. Aliens, bows in March. There should be 7,500 screens when DWA launches Shrek 4 in 2010, Katzenberg forecast.

The company also has become one of the first studios to use 3D rendering technology at all points of the creation process, from first storyboards through to final prints. To this point, modern 3D animation has begun as 2D and is later upgraded to 3D during post-production.

“2D movies are the equivalent of the vinyl era in music—it doesn’t capture the essence of being there, which 3D does,” said Katzenberg. “3D can re-energize moviegoers. We think this newest revolution is taking us to a most exciting future.”

But this content revolution will be much delayed for homes. In order to enjoy the same advanced level of 3D now available in theaters, people will need to shell out for new 3D TVs.

“It’s not a technology problem,” said Katzenberg. “But, who wants to spend another $1,500 when they just paid that for their new TVs? For 3D to be wildly available in homes is quite a ways away.”

He expects this latest flat-screen HDTV wave to mature in another three to four years, when about 90% of the population will own these types of sets. These TV households will then wait years before thinking about replacing them.

“If you think of TV as a utility, you are going to make an investment in that. And that could be a 10- to 12-year investment,” said Katzenberg.

Additionally, even when people start buying 3D-capable home equipment, the equipment is unlikely to replicate the exact quality that’s shown in theaters.

“It’s hard to have a 3D experience at the level of the immersive theatrical experience,” said Katzenberg. “Light diminishes the 3D effect. Just opening a door in a dark room can diminish the quality. One place where I can go to watch 3D at home is in a closet, but you can’t get a 50-inch TV in there.”

DWA’s Monsters vs. Aliens, and other upcoming 3D projects, will continue to roll out in lower-grade anaglyph 3D technology for the home entertainment market. Disc sets will include cardboard glasses that will allow people to view certain pop-up imagery, but as it was seen decades ago. Modern 3D theatrical systems are considered to deliver a more explosive experience with sturdier lenses.

Regardless of home limitations, the 3D future is bright, according to Katzenberg and conference presenter Screen Digest. In 2009, all six major studios will release titles in 3D. At this time, the majority of all animated projects will be in 3D.

To illustrate the current demand, Katzenberg said 50% of the admissions for Walt Disney Studios’ latest Bolt were to see it in 3D. However, its 3D version played in only 1,300 out of 4,000 total screens.

Upcoming high-profile 3D features include 20th Century Fox’s Ice Age 3 and Avatar and Disney’s UP and Jonas Brothers: The 3D Concert Experience.

“3D pricing can add up to 50% over average 2D ticket price. On average, 3D movies deliver three times the average per-screen revenue" of 2D, Screen Digest senior analyst Charlotte Jones said. “And movies’ 3D versions deliver twice the attendance of their 2D versions.”

Jones estimated that the total share of box-office revenue generated by 3D films will rise from 1.8% in 2008 to 15% in 2009.

Jones noted that “theatrical will be the superior place” for 3D, and projects will be reverted to anaglyph for some time on disc. She noted that she does expect some movement toward 3D in the home market next year, but believes it will be centered on videogames.