ESCA: 3D will take longer to arrive in homes

PHYSICAL: Panelists say lack of technology, standards, will slow releases

By Susanne Ault -- Video Business, 6/24/2009

JUNE 24 | PHYSICAL: LOS ANGELES—Some of the most anticipated fourth-quarter titles, such as Monsters vs. Aliens and Up, are 3D theatricals, but don’t expect all of them to be released in 3D on Blu-ray Disc and/or DVD, said participants of a Tuesday Entertainment Supply Chain Association Conference session.

Although 3D theatricals have garnered healthy box-office revenue, studios will be wary of releasing the same films in the lesser-quality anaglyph 3D technology that is now generally available for homes, panelists said. It’s expected that 3D-enabled TV displays, required for theatrical-styled state-of-the-art 3D, won't be in a significant amount of homes until at least 2010.

Additionally, some companies are waiting for the establishment of at-home advanced 3D standards, before creating hardware and software products that risk being incompatible with each other. Theatrical exhibitors have already agreed upon 3D technology guidelines, enabling today’s 3D big-screen business to flourish.

“We won’t see a lot of those movies in 3D on Blu-ray,” Jim Bottoms, managing director of corporate development at Futuresource, said at the session moderated by Video Business’ Marcy Magiera. “I think studios will hold back on a 3D release. But they may come back in 2010 with a better solution.”

Futuresource predicts that 3% of U.S. households will have 3D TVs in 2010, rising to 12% in 2012 and 45% in 2014.

Today’s anaglyph approach, with which people view the eye-popping imagery through 3D glasses, is at best an activity done in small doses, said participants.

“It’s good for watching a few scenes, but it’s uncomfortable to watch for the entire movie,” said David Wertheimer, executive director of USC’s Entertainment Technology Center. “I don’t think you’ll see studios ship all of their fourth quarter movies" in anaglyph.

However, advanced 3D at home will eventually become a reality as TV manufacturers are relying on the technology to grow their display business, similar to the way the companies have previously depended on high-definition.

“3D has the same drivers as HD,” said Bottoms.

It might be the case that some companies will be so eager to launch 3D-at-home products that they won’t wait for approved standards.

“There will be a battle in the next 12 to 18 months, … a battle between standards bodies, who tend to move slowly, and [corporate] marketing,” said Phil Lelyveld, program manager at the Consumer 3D Experience Lab. “The marketing people might be able to work faster.”