Thoughts at the start of Q4
September 26, 2008

And they’re off! That whoosh you’re hearing is the sound of Paramount Home Entertainment’s Iron Man DVD and Blu-ray Disc flying out of stores in the one-day, early but still official start to the fourth-quarter selling season.

• I suspect the $300 million-plus grosser will also help pull some numbers of Warner Home Video’s simmering Sex and the City: The Movie out the door, for while gal pals got together for the trek to theaters, there might not be as much excitement for an extra trip to Target. If you’re Mom picking up Iron Man for hubby and the kids, though, who can resist a little something for herself? Look for good sales of Sex in week two.

It’s pretty clear that Paramount has a lock on the No. 1 spot for the quarter, with Iron Man, Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull and the unusual Sunday release of Kung Fu Panda.

• I understand the idea of avoiding the election cacophony and creating a retail event on the weekend, but I can’t help wondering why a Friday release date wouldn’t work just as well for Panda? Isn’t Sunday sort of asking for confusion at the store level, creating the potential for some employees to put the title out on Nov. 4 and others to hold it until Nov. 11? I’m sure the studio will have the country covered with its own merchandisers, but at what cost?

In any case, Paramount’s going to get the quarter—and the market share—it has long worked for.

• Another studio primed to improve its position is Universal Studios Home Entertainment, which has been in an extended relatively dry spell but has a good fourth-quarter slate of solid hits in Mamma Mia!, The Incredible Hulk, Wanted, The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor and Hellboy II: The Golden Army. But in this quarter of unusually heavy date jockeying, Universal has yet to officially stake out dates for Mamma Mia!, Wanted and The Mummy.

• 20th Century Fox Home Entertainment is doing a smart job of scheduling what it has got for the quarter, planting Meet Dave and Space Chimps with Sony Pictures Home Entertainment’s mighty Hancock during Thanksgiving week and Horton Hears a Who! close to Christmas, a good distance away from Panda and Walt Disney Studios Home Entertainment’s formidable WALL-E, and on the same date as Warner’s The Dark Knight.

• With Batman this fourth quarter and the next Harry Potter installment in Q4 ’09, is Warner set or what?

Posted by Marcy Magiera on September 26, 2008 | Comments (0)