Universal City, Calif.—For an indication of 3D’s potential to reinvigorate the home entertainment market, look no further than the effect it has had on the American box office.

3D screenings generated 8% of U.S. box-office revenue during the summer. "Without 3D premium pricing, the summer would not have registered as positive," Screen Digest senior analyst Charlotte Jones told attendees at the 3D Entertainment Summit produced here in association with our sister publication, Variety. By the end of the year, 3D screenings alone will account for $1 billion in box-office revenue, she said.

Among theaters converting their screens to digital cinema this year, 93% have done so for 3D, and still, with about 7,000 digital screens in the U.S. and 5,000 internationally—there are not enough 3D screens for all the titles coming. In 2008, the average 3D theatrical release played for 8.7 weeks, Jones said, a time that dropped to 3.1 weeks in 2009 as 15 3D releases so far have crowded on to screens. Next year, with at least 30 releases on tap, the average run could drop to less than two weeks, she
predicted.

Still, the market will continue to grow, both through the addition of digital screens—83% of screens in the U.S. will be digital by 2013, Jones forecast, compared to almost 20% of the U.S.’s roughly 38,000 screens now sporting digital—and through the extension of 3D into the home.

"3D screens are driven by demand to capitalize on releases," like Monsters vs. Aliens, Up and Ice Age 3: Dawn of the Dinosaurs, Jones said.

Imagine if Blu-ray adoption was also driven by demand for 3D releases.

It’s a phenomenon we could start to see by next year, as both studios and consumer electronics hardware manufacturers begin to roll out stereoscopic 3D products to retail.

"It will be a number of years before you get to deep penetration, but we still will see a robust market that will begin to emerge in 2010," DreamWorks Animation chief Jeffrey Katzenberg said in his keynote address. "All the major manufacturers are aggressively rolling 3D products beginning next year."

There are challenges, of course. Consumers will have to invest in 3D TV displays, Blu-ray players and software that could be more pricey than Blu-ray is now.

But you can see the potential upside right there at the box
office.