Win some, lose some
September 28, 2007

Somebody’s gonna lose in the fourth quarter.

Nobody wants to say it, but there it is.

Despite relentless optimism by the studios, which are slamming everything they can into stores between Sept. 25 and Dec. 31, some titles are going to underperform.

That’s not to completely negate the spin coming out of pretty much all the studios right now that a rising tide lifts all boats. They are counting on a packed release slate that includes 15 titles that made more than $100 million in theaters to basically expand consumer purchasing just because there’s so much good stuff available. Even titles that in past years might have been held until January, are being released before Christmas to take advantage of this expected heightened consumer appetite for DVD.

That’s a fairly safe bet, but only up to a point—or down to a certain box-office, especially given the restrained spending most analysts are expecting for the holiday season (see Sweeting, page 6).

I hope it’s the year we see 15 (or more) home runs in the fourth quarter, with every title meeting or exceeding expectations, but that would be unprecedented. It certainly will call for innovative in-store merchandising and cooperative marketing between studios and retailers, who may be anxious to replace one glossy endcap with another after a slow week.

Two chains might win

Movie Gallery’s slam-bang closures of more than 500 stores may be the move that keeps the chain out of bankruptcy, and there’s a good chance it will bolster Blockbuster as well.

With so many Hollywood Video locations, now owned by Movie Gallery, adjacent to Blockbuster stores, Big Blue stands to pick up at least as much market share as nearby Hollywood/Movie Gallery stores, and possibly avoid store closures of its own.

Everybody wins

Wal-Mart’s move, with the help of several studios, to determine and eventually reduce the carbon footprint of a DVD will in time benefit all home entertainment suppliers. The retailer is in a singular position to influence the adoption of best environmental practices that span manufacturing and distribution, reducing the consumption of electricity, petroleum products, paper and other natural resources. In the words of Fox’s Steve Feldstein,

Posted by Marcy Magiera on September 28, 2007 | Comments (0)