Despite a good front at studios, analysts starting to hedge their bets on Blu-ray
September 26, 2007

There are still people in the industry who think the high-def format war is going to be over this year--I spoke to one of them yesterday--despite growing signs that it will extend at least through holiday season 2008, and possibly as much as one to three years beyond that.

Even some of the soothsayers who long ago annointed Blu-ray the winner as starting to hedge their bets. Forrester Research and the U.K.'s Understanding and Solutions both within the last week issued new reports backpedaling somewhat on earlier projections that Blu-ray would win as early as this year. 

These follow a recent Screen Digest report predicting that that format war will last for several years, forcing more studios to support both formats, and a missive in NPD Group's High Definition Report Series that showed there is a huge degree of consumer uncertainty over whether to purchase next-gen disc players, even among HDTV owners. 

Forrester, which predicted a Blu-ray win all the way back in 2005, still gives the Sony-backed format the edge, but notes that supporters have failed to land a knock-out blow to HD DVD and says the consequence of that will be at least 18 more months in the format war. In the meantime, Forrester analysts recommend a strategy revamp in the Blu-ray camp, including a viable player for $250 by Christmas. Yes, this Christmas!

U&S managing director, who also has been a vocal champion of Blu-ray, now expresses concern that "developments over the past few weeks have the potential to erode BD’s current lead, and there is growing concern throughout the industry that both high definition disc formats could be lost completely in a world of competing delivery options and viewing platforms."

The reason for the new (or newly acknowledged) uncertainly among analysts include: Paramount's and DreamWorks Animation's shift to support HD DVD only; the weak launch of Sony's PlayStation 3; consumer confusion over all HDTV; consumers' lack of awareness of next-gen DVD options; HD DVD's aggressive pricing and likely availability of sub-$200 players by Christmas; and the slower-than-expected development of advanced interactivity (BD Live) for Blu-ray..

Posted by Marcy Magiera on September 26, 2007 | Comments (0)